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I win 95% of all my craps sessions. No progressions, flat bets. Example.If I buy in for $1,ooo, I either win $1,000 of lose 1,000. 95 times out of 100, I win $1,000 within 2 hours. I am not selling anything here. I am just so sick of all the garbage out there promoting dice setting and silly systems that use ANY form of progressive betting. There are NO winning systems for Craps that work! All these systems are cons to get your money in exchange for useless methods that are just going to lose you a lot more of your money at the Craps table. All bets offered by the House have a built-in. The house edge can be determined by the amount of money paid by the casino when you win relating to the true odds for the bet. What players are hoping to accomplish by using betting system would be to take advantage of the short turn variation in probability. For example in craps, the ratio of seven to be rolled is 6 to 1.
I’ve never read a blog post or an article about the game of craps or craps strategy that didn’t mention how exciting the game is.
Okay. Now that we have that out of the way.
The purpose of this post is to introduce you to the 10 most fundamental concepts in craps strategy. This is not a get rich quick scheme. I don’t have any systems to sell you.
My only interest is in helping you save money at the gambling tables and have fun while you’re doing it.
The truth is that craps is a negative expectation game. If you play long enough, you’ll eventually go broke.
But you can get more entertainment for your money if you understand some of the basics of craps strategy.
1- Start Your Craps Career by Sticking with the Most Easily Understood Bets on the Table
The basic bets in craps are the pass and don’t pass bets. These are bets on whether the shooter “succeeds” or not. These are also the best bets on the table. The house edge for each of those bets is, respectively, 1.41% and 1.36%.
Both those bets pay even money, which make them marginally less exciting than some of the other bets. But the payout isn’t what’s important for each bet. It’s the house edge.
That’s a mathematical estimate of how much of each bet you expect to lose on average over the long run. It’s always expressed as a percentage.
If you bet $100 on every roll of the dice and place the pass bet every time, the casino expects your losses to average $1.41 for every bet you place.
This is exceptionally low compared to most bets at most other casino games. In fact, it’s significantly better than most of the other bets at the craps table.
At an average craps table, you’ll see about 100 rolls of the dice per hour. If you lose $1.41 on average for each of them, you’ll see an hourly loss average out to $141.
That sounds awful until you compare it to other games like slot machines, which usually have a house edge of 7% or more, or roulette, which has a house edge of 5.26%.
Most of the time I recommend taking the bet with the lowest house edge, but in craps, I think it’s so much more fun to root for the shooter that it’s worth the 0.05% difference in house edge.
2- Continue Your Craps Career by Placing One of Only 2 Bets in the Casino with a House Edge of 0%
A bet with a house edge of 0% is a bet that will break even in the long run. I only know of 2 bets in the casino with a house edge of 0%:
- 1. The double up bet in video poker
- 2. The odds bet in craps
When you’ve made a pass or don’t pass bet in craps, you can place a 2nd bet if and when the shooter sets a point. You win this 2nd bet if the shooter succeeds if you placed a pass bet, and you win it if the shooter fails if you placed a don’t pass bet.
The tricky thing about the odds bet is that it isn’t labeled on the craps table. You place the bet by putting the additional chips behind your initial pass or don’t pass bet.
Since this bet has no house edge, it’s an opportunity to get more money into action without any real long-term risk.
Some writers combine the 2 bets together for purposes of illustrating the total house edge on the 2 bets combined. Casino mobile gratis. I don’t see much point in doing that.
I can tell you, though, that the best strategy decision you can make in craps is to take the biggest odds bet that you can, every time it’s available.
The odds bet is part of what causes the crazy streaks of luck in the game, but that’s also part of the charm of craps.
3- Stay Far Away from the Bets in the Center of the Table
Not every bet at the craps table offers good odds. In fact, most of the bets offer lousy odds. I mentioned earlier that you can measure how good a bet on a casino game is by how low the house edge is.
Let’s take a look at the house edge for some of the bets in the middle of the craps table:
The “any 7” bet pays off 4 to 1 if the shooter rolls any total of 7 on the next roll. The odds of winning that bet, though, are 5 to 1. The difference is the house edge.
- Assume you bet $100 on any 7 for 36 rolls. And also assume that you have a perfect distribution for those rolls.
- You’ll win that bet 6 times, but you’ll lose 30 times.
- With a 4 to 1 payout, you’ll win $400 X 6, or $2400.
- But you’ll have lost $100 X $30, or $3000.
- Your net loss is $600.
- Since you placed 36 bets, you can average the amount lost into the number of bets to get your average loss per bet. In this case, it’s $16.67, which is 16.67% of $100.
And that’s just one example.
The house edge on the various bets in the center of the craps table range from 2.78% to 16.67%. None of them are good bets.
Just stick with the pass and don’t pass bets. Skip all the sucker bets in the middle of the table.
4- Steer Clear of Betting Systems Where You Increase and Decrease the Size of Your Bet Based on Previous Outcomes
You’ll sometimes see craps “experts” suggesting that you use some variation of the Martingale System for craps. The Martingale is a betting system used with even money bets at table games. You double the size of your bet after each loss until you win.
SEEMS fool-proof. But it’s not.
Here’s an example of how it might work at the craps table:
You bet $5 (the minimum in this casino) on the pass line bet, and you lose. On your next bet, you bet $10. If you win this time, you’ll recoup your $5 loss on the previous bet and have a $5 profit to show for it.
You bet $5 (the minimum in this casino) on the pass line bet, and you lose. On your next bet, you bet $10. If you win this time, you’ll recoup your $5 loss on the previous bet and have a $5 profit to show for it.
But if you lose again, you double the size of your last bet again, this time, from $10 to $20. This recoups the $5 you lost and the $10 you lost, and you have a $5 profit.
You can continue this progression as long as your money holds out and as long as your bet stays beneath the table max.
The problem with the Martingale System is that doubling the size of your bets increases your bet size far faster than you’d expect. You might think it’s hard to lose the same bet 8 or 9 times in a row, but it happens more often than you think.
When it does, you see a devastating loss. In fact, that loss will be so devastating that you’ll lose all those tiny profits you made previously.
Here’s what 8 bets in a row look like if you start with $5:
- 1. $5
- 2. $10
- 3. $20
- 4. $40
- 5. $80
- 6. $160
- 7. $320
- 8. $640
A lot of craps tables with a $5 minimum have a $500 maximum bet. If you lose 7 times in a row, you break the system and can’t continue.
Also, if you lose 7 times in a row, you’ll have lost $635 already. To place a $640 bet at this point means you’ll have put $1275 in action over the course of 8 bets.
And if you win that final bet?
You’re only up $5 for the entire session.
Betting systems like the Martingale have no way of overcoming the house edge. They seem like a good idea in the short run, but in the long run, you’ll lose just as much money (or more) using this kind of betting system as you would if you just randomly varied the size of your bets.
5- Don’t Try to Hedge Your Bets Either
You’re hedging your bets when you place a bet intended to offset the losses from another bet.
An example might make it easier to understand:
You place a $10 bet on the pass line. You simultaneously bet $2 on the “any craps” bet. (The any craps bet wins if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, or 12.)
You place a $10 bet on the pass line. You simultaneously bet $2 on the “any craps” bet. (The any craps bet wins if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, or 12.)
It’s impossible to lose with this bet. If the shooter rolls a 7 or an 11 on the come out roll, you win $10. Sure, you’ll lose the $2 any craps bet, but you’ll have a net win of $8.
If the shooter rolls a 2, 3 or 12 on the come out roll, you win $14 (7 to 1). Sure, you’ll have lost the $10 pass line bet, but you’ll have a net win of $4.
This seems like a no-brainer strategy. The problem is that it doesn’t account for when the shooter rolls a point.
How often does this happen?
- You have 36 possible outcomes in a come out roll.
- 4 of those possible outcomes are any craps. (1,1; 1,2; 2,1; 6,6).
- 8 of those possible outcomes win the pass line bet (1,6; 2,5; 3,4; 4,3; 5,2; 6,1; 5,6; 6,5).
- That’s 12 possible outcomes where you’re guaranteed a profit.
- But on the other 24 outcomes (2 out of 3 times), the shooter will set a point. In each of those cases, the “any craps” bet loses right out of the gate. You still face the house edge when the shooter tries to roll the point.
The hedge bet doesn’t change your odds of winning. It only looks that way.
Almost all craps betting systems involve raising and lowering your bets based on when you’re winning or losing. But they also often involve systems for hedging your bets.
Don’t bother unless you think it sounds like a fun way to place bets. Top rated online casinos usa. Even then, the house edge on the any craps bet is higher than you should be willing to pay.
6- Play Craps for the Lowest Stakes that Remain Interesting for You
You can calculate how much an hour of gambling at a given game will cost (on average) by multiplying the house edge by the number of bets per hour. You multiply that by the average size of your bet to get your expected hourly loss.
In the short run, this number is meaningless. It’s just a long-term expectation, and your results will vary from that mathematical expectation. But the longer you play, the closer you’ll eventually come to seeing the mathematical expectation become a reality.
This means that in the long run, you’ll lose twice as much money betting $10 per roll as you would if you were betting $5 per roll. The bigger your bet size, the more expected loss is.
I have just as much fun at the craps table betting $5 as I do betting $10 or $20, but you might have more money than I do. (I am, after all, only a poor gambling blogger.)
Years ago, I read a great book called Poker Night by John Vorhaus. He wrote about how to choose the stakes for your poker game. If you’re playing for such low stakes that winning or losing doesn’t matter to you at all, poker is an exercise in boredom.
He suggest playing in a game based on your “gulp limit.” That’s the amount of money that would make you swallow really hard if you lost your wallet with that amount in it.
That’s the size of your starting bankroll—your gulp limit. You can back-calculate the stakes you want to play for by dividing that bankroll by 10 or 20.
If your gulp limit is $200, you should be playing for $10 or $20 per roll.
7- Find the Casinos Who Offer You the Biggest Odds Bet Multiples
Since the odds bet offsets the house edge on the pass line and don’t pass line bet in proportion to how much you wager on it, the more you bet on it, the better off you are. But casinos have a maximum bet size for the odds bet based on a multiple of your original pass or don’t pass bet.
For example, the Circus Circus Casino in Las Vegas has a minimum bet of $5 and a maximum bet of $1000. The maximum odds bet you can take is 2X the size of your pass or don’t pass bet.
If you’re betting $5 per roll, the most you can bet on the odds bet is $10. If you’re betting $1000 per roll (you high roller, you), you can bet $2000 on the odds bet.
You can find casinos in Las Vegas which allow you to take 10X or even 15X odds, but 2X is more common. You should look for casinos which offer bigger limits on the odds bet.
Some casinos have 3x 4X 5X odds bet maximums. In these casinos, you can bet 3X your original bet if the point is 4 or 10, 4X your original bet if the point is 5 or 9, and 5X your original bet if the point is 6 or 8.
This is meant to simplify payouts for the craps dealers. Those bets pay off at 2 to 1, 3 to 2, and 6 to 5, respectively.
If you make the pass line bet with the maximum odds bet at a 3X 4X 5X table, the payout is always 7 to 1 on your total action. This makes it easier for the dealer.
Still, you’re better off finding a casino that allows you to bet more than that on the odds bet.
My suggestion for the best place to play craps in Las Vegas is the Casino Royale. It’s on the Strip, and it features some of the lowest betting minimums and highest possible odds bets in Las Vegas. You can bet $2 per roll of the dice in craps, and you can place an odds bet of up to 100X, or $200.
The cumulative house edge on a pass line bet taking maximum odds drops to just 0.02%. You won’t find a bet (or combination of bets) anywhere in any casino in the world with such a low house edge—unless you’re a card counter or an expert video poker player. (Those professions are outside the scope of this post, though—sorry.)
8- Consider Learning How to Set and Control the Dice
The idea behind dice setting and dice control is that a skilled shooter can affect the probability of getting a certain total on the dice. If skill comes into play when you’re rolling the dice, craps becomes a game more like darts than roulette.
I’m skeptical of this possibility, but I’ve seen gambling writers and experts I respect who lend the idea some credence. Even if it’s possible, I don’t think it’s practical for most gamblers to try this. Here’s why:
To be able to control the dice, you’d need to practice. You can’t practice for free in a casino, so you’d need to build or buy a casino-equivalent craps table to put in your garage or basement.
Then you’d need to practice for an insane number of repetitions to have any degree of statistical certainty that your skill is in fact affecting your outcomes. Anyone can look like they have skill by getting lucky on a dozen throws of the dice in a row. You’ll need to record your results until you have confidence in your statistical results.
That’s a lot of work for something you might turn out not to be good at. It’s also a lot of work on something that might not even be possible.
I don’t know of any casinos changing their rules or game conditions to combat dice setters. So I’m skeptical of how big a problem it is.
9- Try Playing Free Craps Games Online
I shouldn’t have to go into a lot of detail about this tip for it to make sense. If you’re playing craps without risking any money, you can’t lose any money. Online casinos offer play money games where you don’t risk a thing. At a lot of these casinos, you don’t even have to register an account.
10- See if You Can Find Some Buddies to Play “Street Craps” With
Street craps is the game played in an alleyway or someone’s house. You’ll see people playing street craps in a lot of old movies.
The most important difference between street craps and casino craps is the lack of betting options. In street craps, you only have the 2 betting options—pass and don’t pass. The rules for these bets work the same as they would if you were playing in a casino.
You’re just betting against the other players.
Conclusion
I can’t imagine a game in the casino more fun than craps. Luckily, it also offers some of the best odds in the casino—IF you place the right bets. Once you learn the basics of the game, it’s easy to do well at craps at least part of the time. Just stick with the bets which have a low house edge.
The rest of what you need to know about craps strategy can be boiled down to avoiding bad strategies. The bad bets at the craps table are awful. There’s never a reason to place a bet on something as silly as “hard eight,” even though PT Anderson made a great movie with that title.
Other trap to avoid is thinking that hedging your bets or raising and lowering your bets based on previous results will do anything to help you win. Those tactics don’t work and never have.
Craps is a notoriously streaky game. This is good news and bad news. It means you can have big winning streaks. Sadly, it also means you can have fast losing streaks, too.
And the losing streaks are marginally more common than the winning streaks. That’s how a game with a negative expectation for the player works. Play long enough, and you’ll lose all your money.
But you can sure have some fun and walk away a winner from the craps table once in a while.
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Have you ever heard of the craps pro? I can honestly say that I have been playing this craps method for a year now and over the long run I have been winning 60% of my bets with the casino paying me odds on the place bets. I'm one of the crazies out here that believe that this works. I have tried many systems and spent thousands of dollars believing there must be a way to beat the casino over the long haul. Nothing worked until I purchased this method. I'm a true believer and my wallet shows it, or maybe hundreds of hours at the table is not enough time to prove it to be true I'll let you know how I do over the next year. If you haven't heard of this method than research it and prove me wrong.
Although I have tested a lot of systems, I don't need to test all of them to know they are all worthless. No system can ever pass the test of time. It is not unusual to win for a while with a system, but if you keep playing the odds will eventually catch up to you and you will fall behind.
For more information about the futility of betting systems, please see The Truth about Betting Systems.
For more information about the futility of betting systems, please see The Truth about Betting Systems.
Let me begin by saying that of all the gambling related sites, the Wizard of Odds is by far the best. My question has to do with a betting strategy for craps. My question has to do with what some people have termed variance. As you state in your Ten commandments, the house has an edge in the long term, but there are short term fluctuations.
A casino I played at had the 3,4,5 odds system where you were allowed 3x on the 4 and 10, 4x on the 5 and 9 and 5 x on the 6 and 8. I feel that with this 'system' of placing odds, you reduce the fluctuations (with respect to standard 5x odds on all numbers) in your bankroll, and change the distribution of net gain/loss per session, i.e. you would produce a sharper peak located slightly more to the loss side than with 5x odds. Is this so, and could you put some numbers to it?
A casino I played at had the 3,4,5 odds system where you were allowed 3x on the 4 and 10, 4x on the 5 and 9 and 5 x on the 6 and 8. I feel that with this 'system' of placing odds, you reduce the fluctuations (with respect to standard 5x odds on all numbers) in your bankroll, and change the distribution of net gain/loss per session, i.e. you would produce a sharper peak located slightly more to the loss side than with 5x odds. Is this so, and could you put some numbers to it?
That is known as 3-4-5X odds, and is now pretty common. The following table shows all the possible outcomes, for the pass and odds combined, with full odds.
Return Table with 3-4-5X Odds
Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
Pass line win | 1 | 0.222222 | 0.222222 |
Pass line loss | -1 | 0.111111 | -0.111111 |
Point of 4 or 10 & win | 7 | 0.055556 | 0.388889 |
Point of 4 or 10 & lose | -4 | 0.111111 | -0.444444 |
Point of 5 or 9 & win | 7 | 0.088889 | 0.622222 |
Point of 5 or 9 & lose | -5 | 0.133333 | -0.666667 |
Point of 6 or 8 & win | 7 | 0.126263 | 0.883838 |
Point of 6 or 8 & lose | -6 | 0.151515 | -0.909091 |
Total | 1.000000 | -0.014141 |
The standard deviation per pass line bet is 4.915632.
As a moderate craps player who is of course interested in receiving every 'comp' possible, could you give advice on the best betting (craps) strategy. Tried to find it in your GREAT web site.
Unlike most gambling writers, I don't put much emphasis on betting strategies. Assuming the same game and bet, there is no one right or wrong strategy. They all behave differently in the short run, but in the long run you will give the house the same percentage of total money bet.
I like your site very much. It is very informative. Thanks for putting out your thoughts. I noticed a betting strategy for craps suggested at Crappers Delight called 'classic regression'. In it he suggests, placing a 6 and 8, after a point is established. Then taking it down after one of them is hit. He said there are 10 combined ways to make the 6 and 8, but only 6 combined ways to make the 7. It sounds logical, but I've seen where you are able to show, that what appears logical on the surface is not so bright once it is analyzed. What are your thoughts on this strategy and what would the true odds be, if you did take the bets down after one hit?
This is similar to a question I got last week. Yes, it is true that there are ten ways to roll a 6 or 8, and six ways to roll a 7. However, one must not look at the probabilities alone, but weight them against the payoffs. The place bet on the 6 and 8 pays 7 to 6 odds when fair odds would pay 6 to 5. By making six unit place bets on the 6 and 8, and taking the other down if one wins, the probability of winning 7 units is 62.5% and the probability of losing 12 units is 37.5%. If the player must cover both the 6 and 8, then the place bet is the way to go. This rate of return isn't bad but could be better. For the player who puts a priority on minimizing the overall house edge, the best strategy is to make combinations of pass, don't pass, come, and don't come bets, and always take the maximum allowable odds.
What is the better system, or which gives me the better chance to win on craps? On the come out roll, I bet $10 on the don’t and $10 on the do, and then when a point comes out I lay full odds against the number. Or is it better to just play the don’t pass, and then lay the odds. I think getting passed the come out roll will increase my chances of winning.
The better system is to bet on the don't pass only and take full odds. Yes, betting on both does increase you chances of winning on any one bet. However you are suffering a higher combined house edge by betting on both the pass and don't pass and it will cost you in the long run.
I played craps for the first time the other night and went from $70 to $700 with small bets on the pass odds and field bets. I then lost it all down to $6 because my bets were too large (by the dealers suggestion), and gained it back to $1000 after slowing down. For this being the first time it seems like a very easy game to win if you have patience, was it beginners luck?
Yes, it was luck. It helped that you stuck to the low house edge bets. However, next time, make the line bets with odds only, and don't bet the field, especially if it pays 2 to 1 only on both the 2 and 12.
In craps, could one gain an advantage over the house by making both a Pass and Don't Pass bet (one unit each) and then playing the Don't Pass odds? Although the occasional 12 would steal one unit here and there, it seems that the seven would have an advantage over the point. At triple odds one could take 3x on the 4&10, 2x on the 5&9 and 1x on the 6&8.
No combination of bets can give the player an advantage. In your example you would lose one unit for every 12 on the come out roll. You don't make up for it laying the odds. While you usually win laying the odds, you have to risk more. In the end, laying the odds has zero house edge.
I love to play craps and would like your opinion on a conventional method of play. Pass line and two come bets with full double odds or with one come bet? Does having three different bets working superior to two?
As long as you are backing up your pass and come bets with full odds, it doesn't make any difference how many come bets you make. However, it does reduce the overall house edge to keep the odds on your come bets working on the come out roll.
In craps, does the house edge change if you make a don't pass bet then remove it if the point is 6 or 8? What if you remove it if the point is 6,8,5,or 9?
You should never remove a don't pass bet after a point is made! Once a point is made of 6 or 8 the don't pass has equity of 9.09% of the bet amount, which you would be throwing away by taking the bet down. The equity of a don't pass bet on a point of 5 or 9 is 20%, and on a 4 or 10 is 33.33%.
I’d like your thoughts on this craps strategy. I think it’s a Patrick system for playing don’t pass. Bet one unit on both pass and don’t pass. Then lays odds on the don’t side. You can stop here or then make a don’t come bet. After the dc travels, take the odds off your don’t pass bet (if you don’t like to lay odds). So now you have a unit on the don’t come that pretty much got there with less risk. I know you can never get the advantage over the house, but this seems like a great way to play the don’t side. You eliminate the sevens on the come out roll. And only get hurt by the 12; or the 11 on your don’t come bet. P.s. Your site is the greatest.
Thanks for the compliment on my site. The best thing I can say about this system is that it composed of low house edge bets. Yes, a 12 will lose the pass bet and push the don’t pass on the come out roll, this is where the house edge is. By making the pass bet you are increasing the overall house edge. If you’re afraid losing you shouldn’t be playing at all. Never hedge your bets. So my advice is to stick to just the don’t pass and laying odds. Yes, you’ll lose some on the come out roll. However if you don’t lose on the come out roll the don’t pass bet will usually win.
I am a novice, just starting to play. My question concerns the 'Five Count Doey/Don’t' System. The way I understand the system:- Wait until the shooter establishes a point.
- Play both come/don’t come (same amount). Until you have a maximum of four numbers
- After the shooter has rolled five times without rolling a 7, take odds on all your numbers on the front side.
The rationale: Limit your exposure until you find a 'qualified' (five rolls without a 7) shooter. Only betting the odds so there is no 'house edge'! Can you compare this system with just playing pass/come and taking the odds?
As I stated in the other craps strategy question you are only mixing another house edge bet into the game by betting on both the pass and don’t pass, or come and don’t come. It is also not going to help to wait until a shooter hits five points. The probability of making a point is the same for me and you as it is for somebody who just threw 100 points in a row. In other words, the past does not matter. As I stated to the person who asked the other question (whom I think may also be you) don’t make opposite bets, just stick to either the do or don’t side and always back up your bets with the odds.
The Kelly strategy for betting requires a positive edge to be effective. I play craps and I give the house less than a 1% edge. Once a week I get comps of $62. I gamble only 1 1/2 hours and my total betting doesn’t reach $3000. Theoretically I earn approximately $30 per session. Would the Kelly strategy be helpful to me?
Unless bankroll preservation is very important to you then Kelly betting won’t help. I would just flat bet. Nice strategy to milk the comp system.
The American Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling has the following 'anything but seven' combination of craps bets that shows a net win on any number except 7. Here's how much MENSA advises to bet in the 'Anything but 7' system:- 5- place $5
- 6- place $6
- 8- place $6
- field- $5
- total= $22
Winning Craps Strategy
They claim the house edge is 1.136%. How is that possible if every individual bet made has a higher house edge?
Winning Blackjack System
Good question. To confirm their math I made the following table, based on a field bet paying 3 to 1 on a 12. The lower right cell does shows an expected loss of 25 cents over $22 bet. So the house edge is indeed .25/22 = 1.136%.
Mensa Anything but Seven Combo
Number | Probability | Field | Place 5 | Place 6 | Place 8 | Win | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 0.027778 | 10 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 10 | 0.277778 |
3 | 0.055556 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.277778 |
4 | 0.083333 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.416667 |
5 | 0.111111 | -5 | 7 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 2 | 0.222222 |
6 | 0.138889 | -5 | 0.000000 | 7 | 0.000000 | 2 | 0.277778 |
7 | 0.166667 | -5 | -5 | -6 | -6 | -22 | -3.666667 |
8 | 0.138889 | -5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 7 | 2 | 0.277778 |
9 | 0.111111 | 5 | 0 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5 | 0.555556 |
10 | 0.083333 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.416667 |
11 | 0.055556 | 5 | 0 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.277778 |
12 | 0.027778 | 15 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 15 | 0.416667 |
Total | 1 | -0.25 |
The reason the overall house edge appears to be less than the house edge of each individual bet is because the house edge on place bets is generally measured as expected player loss per bet resolved.
However, in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4.00% to 1.11% on the 5 and 9, and from 1.52% to 0.46% on the 6 and 8.
For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved (or ignoring ties) then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll (including ties).
However, in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4.00% to 1.11% on the 5 and 9, and from 1.52% to 0.46% on the 6 and 8.
For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved (or ignoring ties) then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll (including ties).
What is the best way to make money at craps consistently?
Craig from Los Angeles
No. I had to Google this to find out what this is. This appears to me to be an amusing urban legend about some young scientists who developed a winning craps system. The story is told at Quatloos. I would file this under other fictional stories that have become mistaken for fact, like Joshua’s missing day. As I have said hundreds of times, not only can betting systems not beat games like craps, they can’t even dent the house edge.
I have a question about a series of bets in craps. The strategy is called the 'Iron Cross.' It involves a bet on the 5, 6, 8, and the field. I read up on this, and found that this particular bet will pay on every roll that is not a 7. I was told that this gives you the lowest house edge. What are all the various odds and what-nots to go along with it?
If the player bets $5 on the field and 5, and $6 on the 6 and 8, then he will have a net win of $2 on the 5, 6, and 8, $10 on the 2, $15 on the 12, and $5 on the other field numbers, assuming that the 12 pays 3 to 1 on the field. The player will lose $22 on a 7. On a per roll basis, the player can expect to lose 25 cents compared to $22 in bets, for a house edge of 1.136%.
This begs the question, why is this lower than the individual house edge of each bet made? It’s not. The reason it seems that way is the result of comparing apples to oranges. The house edge of place bets is usually expressed as the expected loss per bet resolved. Looking at the individual bets on a per-roll basis, the house edge on the 5 is 1.11%, and on the 6 and 8 is 0.46%, according to my craps appendix 2. Comparing apples to apples, the house edge is a weighted average of the house edge on the field, 5, 6, and 8, on a per-roll basis, or (5/22)×2.778% + (5/22)×1.111% + (6/22)×0.463% + (6/22)×0.463% = 1.136%.
What is your opinion of the 5-Count strategy in craps?
For the benefit of other readers, the 5-Count is a method of slow-playing craps, as discussed in ’Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution’ by Frank Scoblete and Dominator. As the book states, it is a way of betting nothing on some rolls, reducing your expected loss on random shooters, while still getting the full comp value of table time.
The way the 5-Count works is you start counting rolls as soon as a new shooter throws any point number. When you get to five rolls after you start counting, the shooter is deemed worthy, and you start betting. However, you if the 5th roll is not a point number, it doesn’t count.
The book says you will only be betting 43% of the time, which I agree with. It is common for craps players to not bet, bet small, or bet the don’t pass on new shooters, as a way to qualify him. Once a shooter has made a point, or thrown lots of point numbers, the other players will gain confidence in him, and start betting with him. So, this kind of strategy seems natural. When casinos rate your average bet, they don’t lower the average for betting nothing some of the time. However, sometimes they will dock your time, especially if you are betting big.
Probability Of Winning At Craps
An alternative strategy is to wait until the shooter makes a point. Under this strategy you will only be betting 40.6% of the time, less than the 43.5% with the 5-Count.
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How To Play Winning Craps System
Imagine a craps player who takes maximum odds, say 10x, on his pass line and come bets reducing the house edge to 0.18%. He avoids other bets that give the house a bigger edge. He is an 'astute' right bettor in every way except this: he is determined to lose. Through bankroll management, and a determined effort to only leave the table a 'loser,' he hopes he can look back on his years of craps playing and say, 'I wagered $1 million at the craps table over the years and gave back $50,000 to the house; because of my ’skill,’ I left 5% at the table.' Is he deluding himself? Is he doomed, in spite of his efforts to leave the table a loser every time, to only give the house roughly 0.18% or $1800?
Winning Craps Strategy Videos
Yes! I’ve said many times that betting systems not only can’t beat a house edge game, they can’t even dent it. That includes denting it in the house’s favor. In other words, even if he tried to lose, he still only gives up 0.18% over the long-run, under your assumptions. Over a shorter time, he probably could do this, but not over 'years.' Some might argue that to deliberately lose, the player should do an anti-Martingale, where the player kept pressing his bets until he lost. However, a problem there is that a winning player will eventually reach the table maximum, which is rather low in craps. It just goes to show how futile betting systems are.